Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. most overrated running backs of all time. The more problematic issue is that the Texans are a train wreck. Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. Tony Dorsett 12. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. There is no other way to explain a mid-range RB3 price when he is in one of the worst possible situations in Houston. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals. Gordon isn't going away just because fantasy managers want him to. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. Drew Davenport: Through nine games last year, Montgomery was the 26th ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. Andy Hicks: D'Andre Swift had a patchy rookie season. McKissic is not your traditional committee back or injury-away dart throw for a big ceiling. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. Andrew Davenport: Montgomery was the 26th-ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest through nine games last year. The Raiders are sure to recoup as much production as they can on the $8.5 million guarantee they gave Drake on a two-year deal, so this will look closer to a committee than a true lead-back situation. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Its almost always the other way around for top tier RBs. His career marks are high because he played long (13 yrs) and was consistent. LaDainian Tomlinson 6. In addition, teammate Gus Edwards just signed a two-year, $10M contract extension in June, so he isnt going anywhere any time soon. Jacobs is not the alpha; he's one of many in the Vegas backfield. The Eagles consistently added to the depth chart this offseason with Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell added to Boston Scott. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. Victoria Geary: Dobbins is an elite talent on the best rushing offense in the NFL. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB10. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. Walter Payton 5. . Preseason may help a little. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. No thanks. Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. He has lapses in vision and decision-making. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB35. Single The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. 20 20. Instead, McKissic is a receiving-centric option where targets will be at a premium considering the competition in Washington, which was not present in the 2020 version with notable wide receiver additions Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. The Giants offensive line, playcalling, and quarterback play give us no faith that they can help create fantasy overachievers. By the end of the year, that may change, but Etienne will be a change-of-pace and gadget player who might earn flex value this year until then. So what's the concern? The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Sigmund Bloom: Brian Robinson Jr had an excellent preseason debut, while Antonio Gibson fumbled *again*, so this is trending in the wrong direction for Gibson's 2022 redraft value. 25 Running Backs Overrated Players 10 Quarterbacks 12 Tight Ends 23 Wide Receivers 25 Running Backs Deep Sleepers 9 Quarterbacks 11 Tight Ends 15 Wide Receivers 13 Running Backs The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. Thurman Thomas 14. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris will likely struggle behind his offensive line and may not garner an elite share of red zone touches. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. That, plus the uncertainty of Edmond's role, leaves me more concerned than excited. The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. The fact is, he never . James is the more physically gifted player. They will be pass-dominant inside the five-yard line, which doesn't help Edwards-Helaire's fantasy stock. But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. Jason Garrett was one of the most uninspiring play-callers in the league last year. most overrated running backs of all time. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. Barry Sanders 3. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. And was brought back by a new staff that keeps saying he will be a significant part of the offense. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB13. Chad Parsons: As much as Taylor is an overt talent and a potentially elite RB1 in a best-case scenario. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Phil Alexander: The epic stretch-run that led Montgomery to an RB4 finish in 2020 came with Tarik Cohen sidelined and against the defenses of Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, respectively. Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. His career YPC was 3.9. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. Overrated Sleepers Running Backs Values Overrated Sleepers The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina. Ryan Hester: He might not keep his job, his offense probably wont be great, hes not explosive, and hes on the wrong side of the running back career arc. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB7. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. Edgerrin James 17. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. . Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Has no highlight reel. Wait until next year. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. The first thing that pops out at us is that Jerome Bettis 3.9 YPC is a good deal lower than the offensive lines mark of 4.29 (ADY). Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. Top 10 Most Overrated Athletes of All Time It's not that they aren't great players, they just aren't everything we've been led to believe. He was used more as a receiver than anything. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB20 | Consensus Projections RB20. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. Terrell Davis, Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and recently, Dalvin Cook all took over a season of play to return to form if they did at all. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football.

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